How does the Fed affect Bitcoin?

US interest rate decisions move Bitcoin because they change how attractive risky assets are. Here's how Fed meetings work and what to watch.

The US Federal Reserve sets the interest rates that ripple through the whole financial system. Because Bitcoin trades like a risky asset, Fed decisions and even Fed speeches can move it sharply.

The basic link

• Lower rates (or the expectation of cuts): borrowing gets cheaper and safe investments like cash and bonds pay less, so investors are more willing to take risks. That tends to help crypto.
• Higher rates (or no cuts): safe investments pay more and borrowing costs more, so investors pull back from risk. That tends to weigh on crypto.

Often what matters most isn't the decision itself but whether it matches what markets expected.

When the Fed meets

The Fed's rate-setting committee (the FOMC) meets eight times a year. The decision is announced at 2pm US Eastern time, which is 2am or 3am the next morning in Singapore, followed by a press conference where the Fed chair's tone can move markets as much as the decision.

What else to watch

• Inflation data (CPI and PCE): hotter-than-expected inflation makes rate cuts less likely.
• Jobs data: a very strong job market can mean rates stay higher for longer.
• Bond yields and the US dollar: rising yields and a stronger dollar often weigh on crypto.

Why crypto sometimes ignores the Fed

Crypto-specific events, like ETF flows, regulation or a big hack, can outweigh the Fed for days at a time. And once a decision is fully expected, it may barely move prices at all.

How SteelWater uses it

Our free daily read flags every Fed decision and major US data release in Singapore time, and explains what each one could mean for crypto before it happens.

General market information for education only, not financial advice. Crypto-assets are highly volatile; never risk money you can’t afford to lose.